Nowcasting fatal COVID-19 infections on a regional level in Germany

Abstract

We analyse the temporal and regional structure in mortality rates related to COVID-19 infections. We relate the fatality date of each deceased patient to the corresponding day of registration of the infection, leading to a nowcasting model which allows us to estimate the number of present-day infections that will, at a later date, prove to be fatal. The numbers are broken down to the district level in Germany. Given that death counts generally provide more reliable information on the spread of the disease compared to infection counts, which inevitably depend on testing strategy and capacity, the proposed model and the presented results allow to obtain reliable insight into the current state of the pandemic in Germany.

arXiv comment22 pages, 9 Figures

References in corpus (2)

• Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Epidemic Phenomena Using the R Package surveillance
• Nowcasting Covid-19 statistics reported withdelay: a case-study of Sweden

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• Nowcasting with leading indicators applied to COVID-19 fatalities in Sweden
• Combining Graph Neural Networks and Spatio-temporal Disease Models to Predict COVID-19 Cases in Germany
• Statistical modelling of COVID-19 data: Putting Generalised Additive Models to work
• Simulation-Driven COVID-19 Epidemiological Modeling with Social Media