Modeling and forecasting of the COVID-19 pandemic in India

Abstract

Background: The ongoing COVID-19 epidemic dilated rapidly throughout India. To end the global COVID-19 pandemic major behavioral, social distancing, contact tracing, and state interventions has been undertaken to reduce the outbreak and avert the persistence of the coronavirus in humans in India and worldwide. In absence of any vaccine or therapeutics, forecasting is of utmost priority for health care planning and control the transmission of COVID-19. Methods: We have proposed a mathematical model that explain the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in India. Based on the estimated data our model predicts the evolution of epidemics and the end of SARS-CoV-2 and aids to evaluate the influence of different policies to control the spread of the diseases. Findings: With the real data for infected individuals, we find the basic reproduction number $R_0$ for 17 states of India and overall India. A complete figure is given to demonstrate the estimated pandemic life cycle along with the real data or history to date. Our study reveals that the strict control measures implemented in India substantially mitigated the disseminate of SARS-CoV-2. Importantly, model simulations predict that 95% reduction of outbreak on June 26, 2020 and 99% reduction of outbreak on July 26, 2020 in India. Interpretation: Our model simulation demonstrates that the community-wide elimination of SARS-CoV-2 is possible by mitigating the social distancing and use essential precautions. Lockdown can be implemented strictly to prevent the human-to-human transmission of COVID-19. The model-based and parameter estimation of epidemic life cycle, and end dates, if can be done precisely, may decrease distress and over optimism and develop the mentality for all of us for the next stages of the outbreak evolution.

arXiv comment30 pages, 12 figures

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