Exchangeability, Conformal Prediction, and Rank Tests

Abstract

Conformal prediction has been a very popular method of distribution-free predictive inference in recent years in machine learning and statistics. Its popularity stems from the fact that it works as a wrapper around any prediction algorithm such as neural networks or random forests. Exchangeability is at the core of the validity of conformal prediction. The concept of exchangeability is also at the core of rank tests widely known in nonparametric statistics. In this paper, we review the concept of exchangeability and discuss the implications for conformal prediction and rank tests. We provide a low-level introduction to these topics, and discuss the similarities between conformal prediction and rank tests.

Added reference to Shi et al. (2020, JASA). Corrected Theorem 3

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Cited by in corpus (3)

• Testing for Outliers with Conformal p-values
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• Conformal Uncertainty Sets for Robust Optimization