Probabilistic analysis of masked loads with aggregated photovoltaic production

Abstract

In this paper we present a probabilistic analysis framework to estimate behind-the-meter photovoltaic generation in real time. We develop a forward model consisting of a spatiotemporal stochastic process that represents the photovoltaic generation and a stochastic differential equation with jumps that represents the demand. We employ this model to disaggregate the behind-the-meter photovoltaic generation using net load and irradiance measurements.