Momentum managing epidemic spread and Bessel functions
arXiv:2004.06021 · doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110234
Abstract
Starting with the power law for the total number of detected infections, we propose differential equations describing the effect of momentum epidemic management. Our 2-phase formula matches very well the curves of the total numbers of the Covid-19 infections in many countries; the first phase is described by Bessel functions. It provides projections for the saturation, assuming that the management is steady. We discuss Austria, Brazil, Germany, Japan, India, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, and the USA, including some analysis of the second waves.
54 pages, 29 figures, v5: the two-phase formula for the spread was added covering practically the whole periods of Covid-19 in many countries; v6: the second waves were considered, editing; v7: some data refreshed, Journal reference added