paper

Efficiency of Covid-19 Mobile Contact Tracing Containment by Measuring Time Dependent Doubling Time

arXiv:2004.04604 · doi:10.1088/1478-3975/abac51

Abstract

The Covid-19 epidemic of the novel coronavirus (severe acute respiratory syndrome SARS - CoV-2) has been spreading around the world. While different containment policies using non-pharmaceutical interventions have been applied, their efficiency are not known quantitatively. We show that the doubling time Td(t) with the success s factor, the characteristic time of the exponential growth of Td(t) in the arrested regime, is a reliable tool for early predictions of epidemic spread time evolution and it provides a quantitative measure of the success of different containment measures. The efficiency of the containment policy Lockdown case Finding mobile Tracing (LFT) using mandatory mobile contact tracing is much higher than the Lockdown Stop and Go (LSG) policy proposed by the Imperial College team in London. A very low s factor was reached by LFT policy giving the shortest time width of the dome of positive case curve and the lowest number of fatalities. The LFT policy has been able to reduce by a factor 100 the number of fatalities in the first 100 days of the Covid-19 epidemic, to reduce the time width of the Covid-19 pandemic dome by a factor 2.5 and to rapidly stop new outbreaks avoiding the second wave

arXiv comment20 pages, 4 figures, 2 table

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