Scenario analysis of non-pharmaceutical interventions on global COVID-19 transmissions

Abstract

This paper introduces a dynamic panel SIR (DP-SIR) model to investigate the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the COVID-19 transmission dynamics with panel data from 9 countries across the globe. By constructing scenarios with different combinations of NPIs, our empirical findings suggest that countries may avoid the lockdown policy with imposing school closure, mask wearing and centralized quarantine to reach similar outcomes on controlling the COVID-19 infection. Our results also suggest that, as of April 4th, 2020, certain countries such as the U.S. and Singapore may require additional measures of NPIs in order to control disease transmissions more effectively, while other countries may cautiously consider to gradually lift some NPIs to mitigate the costs to the overall economy.

published in Covid Economics: Vetted and Real-Time Papers, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

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• How Robust are the Estimated Effects of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions against COVID-19?
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• Semiparametric Bayesian Inference for the Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 with a State-Space Model