SIR Model for COVID-19 calibrated with existing data and projected for Colombia
arXiv:2003.11230
Abstract
In this paper we develop a SIR epidemiological model with parameters calculated according to existing data at the time of writing (24/03/2020); the data is from Italy, South Korea and Colombia, the model is then used to project the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic in Colombia for different scenarios using the data of population for the country and known initial conditions at the start of the simulation.
Model has been proven incorrect by actual data