Spread of infectious disease and social awareness as parasitic contagions on clustered networks

Abstract

There is a rich history of models for the interaction of a biological contagion like influenza with the spread of related information such as an influenza vaccination campaign. Recent work on the spread of interacting contagions on networks has highlighted that these interacting contagions can have counter-intuitive interplay with network structure. Here we generalize one of these frameworks to tackle three important features of the spread of awareness and disease: one, we model the dynamics on highly clustered, cliquish, networks to mimic the role of workplaces and households; two, the awareness contagion affects the spread of the biological contagion by reducing its transmission rate where an aware or vaccinated individual is less likely to be infected; and three, the biological contagion also affects the spread of the awareness contagion but by increasing its transmission rate where an infected individual is more receptive and more likely to share information related to the disease. Under these conditions, we find that increasing network clustering, which is known to hinder disease spread, can actually allow them to sustain larger epidemics of the disease in models with awareness. This counter-intuitive result goes against the conventional wisdom suggesting that random networks are justifiable as they provide worst-case scenario forecasts. To further investigate this result, we provide a closed-form criterion based on a two-step branching process (i.e., the numbers of expected tertiary infections) to identify different regions in parameter space where the net effect of clustering and co-infection varies. Altogether, our results highlight once again the need to go beyond random networks in disease modeling and illustrate the type of analysis that is possible even in complex models of interacting contagions.

arXiv comment15 pages, 4 figures

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