Data analysis for the COVID-19 early dynamics in Northern Italy

Abstract

The COVID-19 epidemics, started in China in January 2020, was recognized to have reached Italy around February 20; recent estimates show that most probably the virus circulated in the country already in January, but was not recognized. Data for the early dynamics of COVID-19 in Northern Italy are analyzed.

15 pages, 8 Figures. Analyzed data go until March 2 version 2: typos corrected, discussion of SIR corrected and enlarged; data analyzed remain the same