Doomsday: Two Flaws

Abstract

Here I argue that the much-discussed Doomsday Argument (DA) has two flaws. Its mathematical flaw stems from applying frequentist probability or faulty Bayesian inference. Its conceptual flaw is assuming that Copernican uniformity applies to a collection of ranked people and their ideas. I conclude that the DA has no predictive power whatsoever.

8 pages, 4 figures

References in corpus (1)

• Copernicanism and the Typicality in Time

Cited by in corpus (1)

• Doomsday: A Response to Simpson's Second Question