A Correlation in the Waiting-time Distributions of Solar Flares

Abstract

In isolated solar active regions, we find that the waiting times between flares correlate with flare magnitudes as determined by the GOES soft X-ray fluxes. A "build-up and release" scenario (BUR) for magnetic energy storage in the solar corona suggests the existence of such a relationship, relating the slowly varying subphotospheric energy sources to the sudden coronal energy releases of flares and CMEs. Substantial amounts of research effort had not previously found any obvious observational evidence for such a BUR process. This has posed a puzzle since coronal magnetic energy storage represents the consensus view of the basic flare mechanism. We have revisited the GOES soft X-ray flare statistics for any evidence of correlations, using two isolated active regions, and have found significant evidence for a "saturation" correlation. Rather than a "reset" form of this relaxation, in which the time \textit{before} a flare correlates with its magnitude, the "saturation" relationship results in the time \textit{after} the flare showing the correlation. The observed correlation competes with the effect of reduced GOES sensitivity, in which weaker events can be under-reported systematically. This complicates the observed correlation, and we discuss several approaches to remedy this.

arXiv commentv.2 of a submission to MNRAS

References in corpus (9)

• Global Energetics of Thirty-Eight Large Solar Eruptive Events
• Evolution of Magnetic Field and Energy in A Major Eruptive Active Region Based on SDO/HMI Observation
• 25 Years of Self-Organized Criticality: Solar and Astrophysics
• The Origin of the Solar Flare Waiting-Time Distribution
• Predicting the Starquakes in PSR J0537-6910
• Non-neutralized Electric Current Patterns in Solar Active Regions: Origin of the Shear-Generating Lorentz Force
• Evidence for departure from a power-law flare size distribution for a small solar active region
• Cycle 23 Variation in Solar Flare Productivity
• Statistical Models for Solar Flare Interval Distribution in Individual Active Regions

Cited by in corpus (4)

• Superflares and Variability in Solar-Type Stars with $TESS$ in the Southern Hemisphere
• Fast radio bursts trigger aftershocks resembling earthquakes, but not solar flares
• A statistical search for a uniform trigger threshold in solar flares from individual active regions
• Power-law Indices of EUV Intensity Power Spectrum in Flaring Coronal Active Regions