A Gravity Model Analysis of Irish Merchandise Goods Exports under Brexit

Abstract

We examine the effect of a Hard Brexit on Irish Exports using the PPML Gravity Model and Irish Exports data at the micro level. We find a hard Brexit could reduce Irish national income by over 9 billion euro annually and the effect would be sustained mst in th etraditional sectors of Agriculture and Food production of the Irish economy

36 pages, 4 figures, 10 tables