Flare Productivity of Major Flaring Solar Active Regions: A Time-series Study of Photospheric Magnetic Properties

Abstract

A solar active region (AR) that produces at least one M- or X-class major flare tends to produce multiple flares during its passage across the solar disk. It will be interesting if we can estimate how flare-productive a given major flaring AR is for a time interval of several days, by investigating time series of its photospheric magnetic field properties. For this, we studied 93 major flaring ARs observed from 2010 to 2016 by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). More specifically, for each AR under study, the mean and fluctuation were calculated from an 8-day time series of each of 18 photospheric magnetic parameters extracted from the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patch (SHARP) vector magnetogram products at 12-min cadence. We then compared these with the AR's 8-day flare index, which is defined as the sum of soft X-ray peak fluxes of flares produced in the AR during the same interval of the 8-day SHARP parameter time series. As a result, it is found that the 8-day flare index is well correlated with the mean and/or fluctuation values of some magnetic parameters (with correlation coefficients of 0.6-0.7 in log-log space). Interestingly, the 8-day flare index shows a slightly better correlation with the fluctuation than the mean for the SHARP parameters associated with the surface integral of photospheric magnetic free energy density. We also discuss how the correlation varies if the 8-day flare index is compared with the mean or fluctuation calculated from an initial portion of the SHARP parameter time series.

arXiv comment20 pages, 4 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in the Solar Physics

References in corpus (29)

• Effect of Trends on Detrended Fluctuation Analysis
• The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) Vector Magnetic Field Pipeline: SHARPs -- Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches
• The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) Vector Magnetic Field Pipeline: Overview and Performance
• Solar Flare Prediction Using SDO/HMI Vector Magnetic Field Data with a Machine-Learning Algorithm
• A Comparison of Flare Forecasting Methods, I: Results from the "All-Clear" Workshop
• Electric current in flares ribbons: observations and 3D standard model
• Response of the Photospheric Magnetic Field to the X2.2 Flare on 2011 February 15
• Observables Processing for the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager Instrument on the Solar Dynamics Observatory
• Predicting Solar Flares Using SDO/HMI Vector Magnetic Data Product and Random Forest Algorithm
• Predicting Coronal Mass Ejections Using Machine Learning Methods
• A Statistical Fractal-Diffusive Avalanche Model of a Slowly-Driven Self-Organized Criticality System
• How did a Major Confined Flare Occur in Super Solar Active Region 12192?
• Assessing the impact of space weather on the electric power grid based on insurance claims for industrial electrical equipment
• What is the relationship between photospheric flow fields and solar flares?
• Detrended fluctuation analysis of daily temperature records: Geographic dependence over Australia
• Productivity of Solar Flares and Magnetic Helicity Injection in Active Regions
• A spatio-temporal description of the abrupt changes in the photospheric magnetic and Lorentz-force vectors during the 2011 February 15 X2.2 flare
• The variation of relative magnetic helicity around major flares
• Successive Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections on 2005 September 13 from Noaa Ar 10808
• The Relationship between the Sudden Change of the Lorentz Force and the Magnitude of Associated Flares
• Temporal Evolution of the Magnetic Topology of the NOAA Active Region 11158
• Non-neutralized electric currents in solar active regions and flare productivity
• Formation of a Flare-Productive Active Region: Observation and Numerical Simulation of NOAA AR 11158
• Sudden Photospheric Motion and Sunspot Rotation Associated with the X2.2 Flare on 2011 February 15
• Pulsations in the Earth's Lower Ionosphere Synchronized with Solar Flare Emission
• Relationships Between Characteristics of the Line-of-Sight Magnetic Field and Solar Flare Forecasts
• Magnetic Energy Spectra in Active Regions
• Magnetic Nonpotentiality in Photospheric Active Regions as a Predictor of Solar Flares
• A Statistical Study on Photospheric Magnetic Nonpotentiality of Active Regions and Its Relationship with Flares during Solar Cycles 22-23

Cited by in corpus (5)

• The characteristics of flare- and CME-productive solar active regions
• Relationship between Successive Flares in the Same Active Region and Space-Weather HMI Active Region Patch (SHARP) Parameters
• On the possibility to probe the flare productivity of an active region on the early stage of emergence
• Magnetic Helicity Flux across Solar Active Region Photospheres: II. Association of Hemispheric Sign Preference with Flaring Activity during Solar Cycle 24
• Time Series Analysis of Photospheric Magnetic Parameters of Flare-quiet versus Flaring Active Regions: Scaling Properties of Fluctuations