A model of adaptive, market behavior generating positive returns, volatility and system risk

Abstract

We describe a simple model for speculative trading based on adaptive behavior of economic agents.The adaptive behavior is expressed through a feedback mechanism for changing agents' stock-to-bond ratios, depending on the past performance of their portfolios.The stock price is set according to the demand-supply for the asset derived from the agents' target risk levels. Using the methodology of agent-based modeling we show that agents, acting endogenously and adaptively, create a persistent price bubble. The price dynamics generated by the trading process does not reveal any singularities, however the process is accompanied by growing aggregated risk that indicates increasing likelihood of a crash.

12 pages, 5 figures