Solar Eruptions, Forbush Decreases and Geomagnetic Disturbances from Outstanding Active Region 12673

Abstract

Based on our tool for the early diagnostics of solar eruption geoeffectiveness (EDSEG tool; Chertok et al., 2013, 2015, 2017), we have analyzed space weather disturbances that occurred in early September 2017. Two flares, SOL2017-09-04T20:33 (M5.5) and SOL2017-09-06T12:02 (X9.3), accompanied by Earth-directed halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were found to be geoeffective. We extracted the associated EUV dimmings and arcades and calculated their total unsigned magnetic flux. This calculation allowed us to estimate the possible scales of the Forbush decreases (FDs) and geomagnetic storms (GMSs) in the range from moderate to strong, and they are close to the observed scales. More precisely, after the first eruption, an FD approximately equal to 2% and almost no GMS occurred because the Bz magnetic field component in front of the corresponding interplanetary CME (ICME) was northern. The stronger second eruption produced somewhat larger composite disturbances (FD ~ 9.3% and GMS with indexes Dst ~ -144 nT, Ap ~ 235) than expected (FD ~ 4.4%, Dst ~ -135 nT, Ap ~ 125) because the second ICME overtook the trailing part of the first ICME near Earth, and the resulting Bz component was more intense and southern. Both ICMEs arrived at Earth earlier than expected because they propagated in the high-speed solar wind emanated from an extended coronal hole adjacent to AR12673 along their entire path. Overall, the presented results provide further evidence that the EDSEG tool can be used for the earliest diagnostics of actual solar eruptions to forecast the scale of the corresponding geospace disturbances.

18 pages, 3 figures, accepted

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Cited by in corpus (7)

• CME-CME Interactions as Sources of CME Geo-effectiveness: The Formation of the Complex Ejecta and Intense Geomagnetic Storm in Early September 2017
• Magnetic helicity and eruptivity in active region 12673
• Peculiar solar sources and geospace disturbances on 20-26 August 2018
• Sun-as-a-star Analysis of H$\alpha$ Spectra of a Solar Flare Observed by SMART/SDDI: Time Evolution of Red Asymmetry and Line Broadening
• Observations of Forbush Decreases of cosmic ray electrons and positrons with the Dark Matter Particle Explorer
• Evolution of the Non-potential Magnetic Field in the Solar Active Region 12673 Based on a Nonlinear Force-free Modeling
• The magnetic field environment of active region 12673 that produced the energetic particle events of September 2017