Geometric consistency of Manin's Conjecture

Abstract

We conjecture that the exceptional set in Manin's Conjecture has an explicit geometric description. Our proposal includes the rational point contributions from any generically finite map with larger geometric invariants. We prove that this set is contained in a thin subset of rational points, verifying there is no counterexample to Manin's Conjecture which arises from an incompatibility of geometric invariants.

56 pages, minor revision, to appear in Compositio Mathematica