High-Precision Orbit Fitting and Uncertainty Analysis of (486958) 2014 MU69

Abstract

NASA's New Horizons spacecraft will conduct a close flyby of the cold classical Kuiper Belt Object (KBO) designated (486958) 2014 MU69 on January 1, 2019. At a heliocentric distance of 44 AU, "MU69" will be the most distant object ever visited by a spacecraft. To enable this flyby, we have developed an extremely high precision orbit fitting and uncertainty processing pipeline, making maximal use of the Hubble Space Telescope's Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) and pre-release versions of the ESA Gaia Data Release 2 (DR2) catalog. This pipeline also enabled successful predictions of a stellar occultation by MU69 in July 2017. We describe how we process the WFC3 images to match the Gaia DR2 catalog, extract positional uncertainties for this extremely faint target (typically 140 photons per WFC3 exposure), and translate those uncertainties into probability distribution functions for MU69 at any given time. We also describe how we use these uncertainties to guide New Horizons, plan stellar occultions of MU69, and derive MU69's orbital evolution and long-term stability.

arXiv comment(18 pages; 3 figures; 3 tables; Accepted for publication in AJ)

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• Initial results from the New Horizons exploration of 2014 MU69, a small Kuiper Belt Object
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• Color, Composition, and Thermal Environment of Kuiper Belt Object (486958) Arrokoth
• Microarcsecond Astrometry: Science Highlights from Gaia
• Size and Shape Constraints of (486958) Arrokoth from Stellar Occultations
• Crater Density Predictions for New Horizons flyby target 2014 MU69
• The HST Lightcurve of (486958) 2014 MU69
• Photometry of Kuiper Belt Object (486958) Arrokoth from New Horizons LORRI
• The Color and Binarity of (486958) 2014 MU69 and Other Long-Range New Horizons Kuiper Belt Targets
• Asteroid astrometry by stellar occultations: Accuracy of the existing sample from orbital fitting
• Sublimation as an effective mechanism for flattened lobes of (486958) Arrokoth
• The Case for a Large-Scale Occultation Network
• A survey for occultation astrometry of Main Belt: expected astrometric performances
• The fate of particles in the dynamical environment around Kuiper Belt object (486958) Arrokoth
• Chasing Nomadic Worlds: A New Class of Deep Space Missions
• Planetary Exploration Horizon 2061 Report, Chapter 4: From planetary exploration goals to technology requirements
• Direct contact binary planetesimal formation from gravitational collapse
• Kilometre-scale Jovian moon characterized for a potential JUICE flyby