Cost optimal scenarios of a future highly renewable European electricity system: Exploring the influence of weather data, cost parameters and policy constraints

Abstract

Cost optimal scenarios derived from models of a highly renewable electricity system depend on the specific input data, cost assumptions and system constraints. Here this influence is studied using a techno-economic optimisation model for a networked system of 30 European countries, taking into account the capacity investment and operation of wind, solar, hydroelectricity, natural gas power generation, transmission, and different storage options. A considerable robustness of total system costs to the input weather data and to moderate changes in the cost assumptions is observed. Flat directions in the optimisation landscape around cost-optimal configurations often allow system planners to choose between different technology options without a significant increase in total costs, for instance by replacing onshore with offshore wind power capacity in case of public acceptance issues. Exploring a range of carbon dioxide emission limits shows that for scenarios with moderate transmission expansion, a reduction of around 57% compared to 1990 levels is already cost optimal. For stricter carbon dioxide limits, power generated from gas turbines is at first replaced by generation from increasing renewable capacities. Non-hydro storage capacities are only built for low-emission scenarios, in order to provide the necessary flexibility to meet peaks in the residual load.

arXiv comment18 pages, 23 figures, 2 tables, accepted to Energy

References in corpus (9)

• Synergies of sector coupling and transmission reinforcement in a cost-optimised, highly renewable European energy system
• PyPSA: Python for Power System Analysis
• Response to 'Burden of proof: A comprehensive review of the feasibility of 100% renewable-electricity systems'
• Impact of different time series aggregation methods on optimal energy system design
• The Benefits of Cooperation in a Highly Renewable European Electricity Network
• Opening the black box of energy modelling: Strategies and lessons learned
• Transmission needs across a fully renewable European power system
• Validation of Danish wind time series from a new global renewable energy atlas for energy system analysis
• The role of spatial scale in joint optimisations of generation and transmission for European highly renewable scenarios

Cited by in corpus (22)

• The role of storage technologies throughout the decarbonisation of the sector-coupled European energy system
• Early decarbonisation of the European energy system pays off
• The Near-Optimal Feasible Space of a Renewable Power System Model
• Speed of technological transformations required in Europe to achieve different climate goals
• The strong effect of network resolution on electricity system models with high shares of wind and solar
• The role of hydro power, storage and transmission in the decarbonization of the Chinese power system
• The Impact of Climate Change on a Cost-Optimal Highly Renewable European Electricity Network
• Modeling all alternative solutions for highly renewable energy systems
• Open model-based analysis of a 100% renewable and sector-coupled energy system -- The case of Germany in 2050
• The Sensitivity of Power System Expansion Models
• Designing a sector-coupled European energy system robust to 60 years of historical weather data
• Impact of CO2 prices on the design of a highly decarbonised coupled electricity and heating system in Europe
• Broad Ranges of Investment Configurations for Renewable Power Systems, Robust to Cost Uncertainty and Near-Optimality
• The impacts of the electricity demand pattern on electricity system cost and the electricity supply mix: a comprehensive modeling analysis for Europe
• Impact of climatic, technical and economic uncertainties on the optimal design of a coupled fossil-free electricity, heating and cooling system in Europe
• Using validated reanalysis data to investigate the impact of the PV system configurations at high penetration levels in European countries
• The role of photovoltaics in a sustainable European energy system under variable CO2 emissions targets, transmission capacities, and costs assumptions
• Inverse methods: How feasible are spatially low-resolved capacity expansion modelling results when disaggregated at high spatial resolution?
• Flow-based analysis of storage usage in a low-carbon European electricity scenario
• Robustness of electricity systems with nearly 100% share of renewables: a worst-case study
• Multi-level informed optimization via decomposed Kriging for large design problems under uncertainty
• Carbon Leakage in a European Power System with Inhomogeneous Carbon Prices