Interplay between cost and benefits triggers nontrivial vaccination uptake

Abstract

The containment of epidemic spreading is a major challenge in science. Vaccination, whenever available, is the best way to prevent the spreading, because it eventually immunizes individuals. However, vaccines are not perfect, and total immunization is not guaranteed. Imperfect immunization has driven the emergence of anti-vaccine movements that totally alter the predictions about the epidemic incidence. Here, we propose a mathematically solvable mean-field vaccination model to mimic the spontaneous adoption of vaccines against influenza-like diseases, and the expected epidemic incidence. The results are in agreement with extensive Monte Carlo simulations of the epidemics and vaccination co-evolutionary processes. Interestingly, the results reveal a non-monotonic behavior on the vaccination coverage, that increases with the imperfection of the vaccine and after decreases. This apparent counterintuitive behavior is analyzed and understood from stability principles of the proposed mathematical model.

arXiv comment7 pages + 4 figures;

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• Explosive transitions induced by interdependent contagion-consensus dynamics in multiplex networks
• Markovian approach to tackle the interaction of simultaneous diseases
• Pulsating-campaigns of human prophylaxis driven by risk perception palliate oscillations of direct contact transmitted diseases
• Competition between vaccination and disease spreading
• Multilayer modeling of adoption dynamics in energy demand management
• A unified framework of epidemic spreading prediction by empirical mode decomposition based ensemble learning techniques
• Optimal rewiring in coupled opinion and epidemic dynamics with vaccination