Modeling of the parties' vote share distributions

Abstract

Competition between varying ideas, people and institutions fuels the dynamics of socio-economic systems. Numerous analyses of the empirical data extracted from different financial markets have established a consistent set of stylized facts describing statistical signatures of the competition in the financial markets. Having an established and consistent set of stylized facts helps to set clear goals for theoretical models to achieve. Despite similar abundance of empirical analyses in sociophysics, there is no consistent set of stylized facts describing the opinion dynamics. In this contribution we consider the parties' vote share distributions observed during the Lithuanian parliamentary elections. We show that most of the time empirical vote share distributions could be well fitted by numerous different distributions. While discussing this peculiarity we provide arguments, including a simple agent-based model, on why the beta distribution could be the best choice to fit the parties' vote share distributions.

12 pages, 7 figures

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• Reduction from non-Markovian to Markovian dynamics: The case of aging in the noisy-voter model
• Compartmental voter model
• Universal Statistics of Competition in Democratic Elections
• Universal features of epidemic and vaccine models