Halo-independence with quantified maximum entropy at DAMA/LIBRA

Abstract

Using the DAMA/LIBRA anomaly as an example, we formalise the notion of halo-independence in the context of Bayesian statistics and quantified maximum entropy. We consider an infinite set of possible profiles, weighted by an entropic prior and constrained by a likelihood describing noisy measurements of modulated moments by DAMA/LIBRA. Assuming an isotropic dark matter (DM) profile in the galactic rest frame, we find the most plausible DM profiles and predictions for unmodulated signal rates at DAMA/LIBRA. The entropic prior contains an a priori unknown regularisation factor, $\beta$, that describes the strength of our conviction that the profile is approximately Maxwellian. By varying $\beta$, we smoothly interpolate between a halo-independent and a halo-dependent analysis, thus exploring the impact of prior information about the DM profile.

16 pages, 6 figures. Matches published version. Comments about isotropy added

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• Bracketing the impact of astrophysical uncertainties on local dark matter searches
• Uncertainties in Direct Dark Matter Detection in Light of Gaia's Escape Velocity Measurements
• Halo uncertainties in electron recoil events at direct detection experiments
• Dark matter substructures affect dark matter-electron scattering in xenon-based direct detection experiments
• Non-parametric uncertainties in the dark matter velocity distribution
• Precise interpretations of traditional fine-tuning measures
• New probability distributions in astrophysics: III. The truncated Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution