Empirical analysis and agent-based modeling of Lithuanian parliamentary elections

Abstract

In this contribution we analyze a parties' vote share distribution across the polling stations during the Lithuanian parliamentary elections of 1992, 2008 and 2012. We find that the distribution is rather well fitted by the Beta distribution. To reproduce this empirical observation we propose a simple multi-state agent-based model of the voting behavior. In the proposed model agents change the party they vote for either idiosyncratically or due to a linear recruitment mechanism. We use the model to reproduce the vote share distribution observed during the election of 1992. We discuss model extensions needed to reproduce the vote share distribution observed during the other elections.

19 pages, 11 figures

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• Noisy voter model for the anomalous diffusion of parliamentary presence
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• Understanding the nature of the long-range memory phenomenon in socioeconomic systems
• Spontaneous Opinion Swings in the Voter Model with Latency
• Delayed interactions in the noisy voter model through the periodic polling mechanism
• Mean First Passage Time of the Symmetric Noisy Voter Model with Arbitrary Initial and Boundary Conditions
• Scaling of variability measures in hierarchical demographic data