Testing the Multiverse: Bayes, Fine-Tuning and Typicality

Abstract

Theory testing in the physical sciences has been revolutionized in recent decades by Bayesian approaches to probability theory. Here, I will consider Bayesian approaches to theory extensions, that is, theories like inflation which aim to provide a deeper explanation for some aspect of our models (in this case, the standard model of cosmology) that seem unnatural or fine-tuned. In particular, I will consider how cosmologists can test the multiverse using observations of this universe.

19 pages, 3 figures. Conference proceedings: to appear in "The Philosophy of Cosmology", edited by Khalil Chamcham, Joseph Silk, John D. Barrow, and Simon Saunders. Cambridge University Press, 2017