Bayes-factor of the ATLAS diphoton excess

Abstract

We present a calculation of Bayes-factors for the digamma resonance ($ϝ$) versus the SM in light of ATLAS 8 TeV 20.3/fb, 13 TeV 3.2/fb and 13 TeV 15.4/fb data, sidestepping any difficulties in interpreting significances in frequentist statistics. We matched, wherever possible, parameterisations in the ATLAS analysis. We calculated that the plausibility of the $ϝ$ versus the Standard Model increased by about eight in light of the 8 TeV 20.3/fb and 13 TeV 3.2/fb ATLAS data, somewhat justifying interest in $ϝ$ models. All told, however, in light of 15.4/fb data, the $ϝ$ was disfavoured by about 0.7.

arXiv comment6 pages, 2 figures. Added discussion of prior sensitivity and ICHEP data

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