Unified Growth Theory Contradicted by the Mathematical Analysis of the Historical Growth of Human Population
arXiv:1601.07291
Abstract
Data describing the historical growth of human population global and regional (Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, former USSR, Africa and Latin America) are analysed. Results are in harmony with the earlier analysis of the historical growth of the world population in the past 12,000 years and with a similar but limited study carried out over 50 years ago. This analysis is also in harmony with the study of the historical economic growth. Within the range of analysable data, there was no Malthusian stagnation. Takeoffs from stagnation to growth, postulated by the Unified Growth Theory never happened. There were no escapes from the Malthusian trap because there was no trap. This analysis and the earlier studies of the Gross Domestic Product lead to the conclusion that there were also no takeoffs in the income per capita distributions, claimed by the Unified Growth Theory. Consequently, the claimed in this theory differential timing in takeoffs never happened. Unified Growth Theory is contradicted yet again by the mathematical analysis of the same data, which were used, but never analysed, during the formulation of this theory. However, this study, as well as the earlier publications on the related topics, shows also that some fundamental postulates used in the economic and demographic research are repeatedly contradicted by the mathematical analysis of data.
22 pages, 16 figures, 1 table, 8691 words. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1603.01685