A method for comparing non-nested models with application to astrophysical searches for new physics

Abstract

Searches for unknown physics and decisions between competing astrophysical models to explain data both rely on statistical hypothesis testing. The usual approach in searches for new physical phenomena is based on the statistical Likelihood Ratio Test (LRT) and its asymptotic properties. In the common situation, when neither of the two models under comparison is a special case of the other i.e., when the hypotheses are non-nested, this test is not applicable. In astrophysics, this problem occurs when two models that reside in different parameter spaces are to be compared. An important example is the recently reported excess emission in astrophysical $\gamma$-rays and the question whether its origin is known astrophysics or dark matter. We develop and study a new, simple, generally applicable, frequentist method and validate its statistical properties using a suite of simulations studies. We exemplify it on realistic simulated data of the Fermi-LAT $\gamma$-ray satellite, where non-nested hypotheses testing appears in the search for particle dark matter.

We welcome examples of non-nested models testing problems

References in corpus (4)

• Towards a Better Understanding of the GRB Phenomenon: a New Model for GRB Prompt Emission and its effects on the New Non-Thermal L${}_{\mathrm{i}}^{\mathrm{NT}}$-E${}_{\mathrm{peak},\mathrm{i}}^{\mathrm{rest},\mathrm{NT}}$ relation
• Statistical Issues in Astrophysical Searches for Particle Dark Matter
• Gamma-ray Lines in the Fermi Data: is it a Bubble?
• A New Technique for Finding Needles in Haystacks: A Geometric Approach to Distinguishing Between a New Source and Random Fluctuations

Cited by in corpus (16)

• The Fermi-LAT GeV Excess Traces Stellar Mass in the Galactic Bulge
• Measuring the dark matter environments of black hole binaries with gravitational waves
• A Global Analysis of Dark Matter Signals from 27 Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxies using 11 Years of Fermi-LAT Observations
• Searching for new physics with profile likelihoods: Wilks and beyond
• Observational evidence for mass ejection accompanying short gamma ray bursts
• Is Spectral Width a Reliable Measure of GRB Emission Physics?
• On methods for correcting for the look-elsewhere effect in searches for new physics
• 3FGL J1924.8-1034 : A Spatially-Extended Stable Unidentified GeV Source?
• Eta Carinae with Fermi-LAT: Two full orbits and the third periastron
• Testing One Hypothesis Multiple Times: The Multidimensional Case
• Detecting new signals under background mismodelling
• Search for galactic Pevatron candidates in a population of unidentified gamma-ray sources
• Testing One Hypothesis Multiple times
• An Interpretation of the Cosmic Ray $e^{+}+e^{-}$ Spectrum from 10 GeV to 3 TeV Measured by CALET on the ISS
• A Bayesian on-off analysis of cosmic ray data
• Deeper analysis of Fermi-LAT unassociated 4FGL J2112.5-3043 for possible identification