The (in)visible hand in the Libor market: an Information Theory approach

Abstract

This paper analyzes several interest rates time series from the United Kingdom during the period 1999 to 2014. The analysis is carried out using a pioneering statistical tool in the financial literature: the complexity-entropy causality plane. This representation is able to classify different stochastic and chaotic regimes in time series. We use sliding temporal windows to assess changes in the intrinsic stochastic dynamics of the time series. Anomalous behavior in the Libor is detected, especially around the time of the last financial crisis, that could be consistent with data manipulation.

arXiv commentPACS 89.65.Gh Econophysics; 74.40.De noise and chaos

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• A Statistical Measure of Complexity
• The Organization of Intrinsic Computation: Complexity-Entropy Diagrams and the Diversity of Natural Information Processing
• Entropy and equilibrium state of free market models

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