paper

Mathematical Modelling, Simulation, and Optimal Control of the 2014 Ebola Outbreak in West Africa

arXiv:1503.07396 · doi:10.1155/2015/842792

Abstract

The Ebola virus is currently one of the most virulent pathogens for humans. The latest major outbreak occurred in Guinea, Sierra Leonne and Liberia in 2014. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the virus and simulate it. In this paper, we begin by studying a simple mathematical model that describes the 2014 Ebola outbreak in Liberia. Then, we use numerical simulations and available data provided by the World Health Organization to validate the obtained mathematical model. Moreover, we develop a new mathematical model including vaccination of individuals. We discuss different cases of vaccination in order to predict the effect of vaccination on the infected individuals over time. Finally, we apply optimal control to study the impact of vaccination on the spread of the Ebola virus. The optimal control problem is solved numerically by using a direct multi-shooting method.

arXiv commentThis is a preprint of a paper whose final and definite form is Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society (Print ISSN: 1026-0226; Online ISSN: 1607-887X) 2015, Article ID 842792, 9 pp. See http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/842792 Submitted 26-Dec-2014; revised 27-Feb-2015; accepted 28-Feb-2015

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