paper

Seasonality effects on Dengue: basic reproduction number, sensitivity analysis and optimal control

arXiv:1409.3928 · doi:10.1002/mma.3319

Abstract

Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted from an infected human to an Aedes mosquito, during a blood-meal. Dengue is still a major public health problem. A model for the disease transmission is presented, composed by human and mosquitoes compartments. The aim is to simulate the effects of seasonality, on the vectorial capacity and, consequently, on the disease development. Using entomological information about the mosquito behavior under different temperatures and rainfall, simulations are carried out and the repercussions analyzed. The basic reproduction number of the model is given, as well as a sensitivity analysis of model's parameters. Finally, an optimal control problem is proposed and solved, illustrating the difficulty of making a trade-off between reduction of infected individuals and costs with insecticide.

Several typos detected by the authors while reading the proofs were corrected. This is a preprint of a paper whose final and definite form is published in 'Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences', ISSN 0170-4214 (see http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/mma.3319). Paper submitted 22/July/2014; revised 11/Sept/2014; accepted for publication 12/Sept/2014

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