Predictive Capabilities of Avalanche Models for Solar Flares

Abstract

We assess the predictive capabilities of various classes of avalanche models for solar flares. We demonstrate that avalanche models cannot generally be used to predict specific events due to their high sensitivity to their embedded stochastic process. We show that deterministically driven models can nevertheless alleviate this caveat and be efficiently used for large events predictions. Our results promote a new approach for large (typically X-class) solar flares predictions based on simple and computationally inexpensive avalanche models.

16 pages, 7 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in Solar Physics

References in corpus (3)

• Toward Reliable Benchmarking of Solar Flare Forecasting Methods
• 25 Years of Self-Organized Criticality: Solar and Astrophysics
• Automated Solar Flare Statistics in Soft X-rays over 37 Years of GOES Observations - The Invariance of Self-Organized Criticality during Three Solar Cycles

Cited by in corpus (5)

• 25 Years of Self-Organized Criticality: Solar and Astrophysics
• Prediction of Solar Flares Using Unique Signatures of Magnetic Field Images
• Solar Flares Complex Networks
• Energy Definition and Minimization in Avalanche Models for Solar Flares
• Forecasting Solar Flares by Data Assimilation in Sandpile Models