Pre-Flare Dynamics of Sunspot Groups
arXiv:1405.7485 · doi:10.1088/0004-637X/789/2/107
Abstract
Several papers provide evidences that the most probable sites of flare onset are the regions of high horizontal magnetic field gradients in solar active regions. Besides the localization of flare producing areas the present work intends to reveal the characteristic temporal variations in these regions prior to flares. This study uses sunspot data instead of magnetograms, it follows the behaviour of a suitable defined proxy measure representing the horizontal magnetic field gradient. The source of the data is the SDD (SOHO/MDI-Debrecen Data) sunspot catalogue. The most promising pre-flare signatures are the following properties of the gradient variation: i) steep increase, ii) high maximum, iii) significant fluctuation and iv) a gradual decrease between the maximum and the flare onset which can be related to the "pull mode" of the current layer. These properties may yield a tool for the assessment of flare probability and intensity within the next 8-10 hours.
References in corpus (3)
Cited by in corpus (12)
- On-line Tools for Solar Data Compiled at the Debrecen Observatory and their Extensions with the Greenwich Sunspot Data
- Solar Magnetic Flux Ropes
- Relationships Between Characteristics of the Line-of-Sight Magnetic Field and Solar Flare Forecasts
- On flare predictability based on sunspot group evolution
- Connecting Coronal Mass Ejections to their Solar Active Region Sources: Combining Results from the HELCATS and FLARECAST Projects
- Testing and Improving a Set of Morphological Predictors of Flaring Activity
- Active Longitude and Coronal Mass Ejection Occurrences
- The characteristics of flare- and CME-productive solar active regions
- Properties of Flare-Imminent versus Flare-Quiet Active Regions from the Chromosphere through the Corona I: Introduction of the AIA Active Region Patches (AARPs)
- Dynamic Precursors of Flares in Active Region NOAA 10486
- A New Approach to Solar Flare Prediction
- Features of Microwave Radiation and Magnetographic Characteristics of Solar Active Region NOAA 12242 Before the X1.8 Flare on December 20, 2014