Predicting the Next Maxima Incidents of the Seasonally Forced SEIR Epidemic Model
arXiv:1401.7972
Abstract
This paper aims at predicting the next maxima values of the state variables of the seasonal SEIR epidemic model and their in-between time intervals. Lorenz's method of analogues is applied on the attractor formed by the maxima of the corresponding state variables. It is found that both quantities are characterized by a high degree of predictability in the case of the chaotic regime of the parameter space.
arXiv comment6 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables, typos added