Wind Energy: Forecasting Challenges for Its Operational Management

Abstract

Renewable energy sources, especially wind energy, are to play a larger role in providing electricity to industrial and domestic consumers. This is already the case today for a number of European countries, closely followed by the US and high growth countries, for example, Brazil, India and China. There exist a number of technological, environmental and political challenges linked to supplementing existing electricity generation capacities with wind energy. Here, mathematicians and statisticians could make a substantial contribution at the interface of meteorology and decision-making, in connection with the generation of forecasts tailored to the various operational decision problems involved. Indeed, while wind energy may be seen as an environmentally friendly source of energy, full benefits from its usage can only be obtained if one is able to accommodate its variability and limited predictability. Based on a short presentation of its physical basics, the importance of considering wind power generation as a stochastic process is motivated. After describing representative operational decision-making problems for both market participants and system operators, it is underlined that forecasts should be issued in a probabilistic framework. Even though, eventually, the forecaster may only communicate single-valued predictions. The existing approaches to wind power forecasting are subsequently described, with focus on single-valued predictions, predictive marginal densities and space-time trajectories. Upcoming challenges related to generating improved and new types of forecasts, as well as their verification and value to forecast users, are finally discussed.

Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-STS445 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)

References in corpus (1)

• Approaches for multi-step density forecasts with application to aggregated wind power

Cited by in corpus (32)

• Convex Relaxations of Chance Constrained AC Optimal Power Flow
• Probabilistic Forecasting of Sensory Data with Generative Adversarial Networks - ForGAN
• Reconciliation of probabilistic forecasts with an application to wind power
• Probabilistic wind speed forecasting on a grid based on ensemble model output statistics
• Forecasting wind power - Modeling periodic and non-linear effects under conditional heteroscedasticity
• Improved Inner Approximation for Aggregating Power Flexibility in Active Distribution Networks and its Applications
• Competition and Coalition Formation of Renewable Power Producers
• A similarity-based implementation of the Schaake shuffle
• Convex Relaxations of Probabilistic AC Optimal Power Flow for Interconnected AC and HVDC Grids
• Generation of scenarios from calibrated ensemble forecasts with a dual ensemble copula coupling approach
• Network-Aware Flexibility Requests for Distribution-Level Flexibility Markets
• Gaussian copula modeling of extreme cold and weak-wind events over Europe conditioned on winter weather regimes
• A Contextual Bandit Approach for Value-oriented Prediction Interval Forecasting
• Incorporating geostrophic wind information for improved space-time short-term wind speed forecasting
• Quantile forecast discrimination ability and value
• Proper Scoring Rules for Multivariate Probabilistic Forecasts based on Aggregation and Transformation
• Harnessing Flexible and Reliable Demand Response Under Customer Uncertainties
• Multiple Joint Chance Constraints Approximation for Uncertainty Modeling in Dispatch Problems
• Random Noise vs State-of-the-Art Probabilistic Forecasting Methods : A Case Study on CRPS-Sum Discrimination Ability
• A Multiperiod OPF Model Under Renewable Generation Uncertainty and Demand Side Flexibility
• Forecasting High-Frequency Spatio-Temporal Wind Power with Dimensionally Reduced Echo State Networks
• Spatio-Temporal Forecasting by Coupled Stochastic Differential Equations: Applications to Solar Power
• A Non-Gaussian Spatio-Temporal Model for Daily Wind Speeds Based on a Multivariate Skew-t Distribution
• Multi-resolution spatio-temporal prediction with application to wind power generation
• On the Equilibria and Efficiency of Electricity Markets with Renewable Power Producers and Congestion Constraints
• Probabilistic Forecasting of Temporal Trajectories of Regional Power Production - Part 2: Photovoltaic Solar
• Stochastic simulation of predictive space-time scenarios of wind speed using observations and physical models
• Probabilistic Forecasting of Temporal Trajectories of Regional Power Production - Part 1: Wind
• Indirect Mechanism Design for Efficient and Stable Renewable Energy Aggregation
• Tractable and Robust Modeling of Building Flexibility Using Coarse Data
• Accurate Evaluation of Asset Pricing Under Uncertainty and Ambiguity of Information
• Ex-post Stable and Fair Payoff Allocation for Renewable Energy Aggregation