A comment on estimating sensitivity to neutrino mass hierarchy in neutrino experiments
arXiv:1311.4076
Abstract
Recently it has been proposed, in the context of experiments designed to resolve the neutrino mass hierarchy, to use the average posterior probability of one of the hypotheses as a measure of sensitivity of future experiments. This has led to sensitivity estimates that are drastically lower than common conventions. We point to the fact that such estimates can be severely misleading: the probability that an experiment would actually produce a result similar to the average value can be in fact negligibly small. We emphasize again the simple relation between median significance and the likelihood ratio evaluated with the ``Asimov'' data set, which can be used to express experimental sensitivity in Bayesian terms as well.
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