paper

The Unexpected 2012 Draconid Meteor Storm

arXiv:1311.1733 · doi:10.1093/mnras/stt2178

Abstract

An unexpected intense outburst of the Draconid meteor shower was detected by the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR) on October 8, 2012. The peak flux occurred at ~16:40 UT on October 8 with a maximum of 2.4 +/- 0.3 hr-1 km-2 (appropriate to meteoroid mass larger than 10-7 kg), equivalent to a ZHRmax = 9000 +/- 1000 using 5-minute intervals, using a mass distribution index of s = 1.88 +/- 0.01 as determined from the amplitude distribution of underdense Draconid echoes. This makes the out- burst among the strongest Draconid returns since 1946 and the highest flux shower since the 1966 Leonid meteor storm, assuming a constant power-law distribution holds from radar to visual meteoroid sizes. The weighted mean geocentric radiant in the time interval of 15-19h UT, Oct 8, 2012 was αg = 262.4 +/- 0.1 deg, δg = 55.7 +/- 0.1 deg (epoch J2000.0). Visual observers also reported increased activity around the peak time, but with a much lower rate (ZHR 200), suggesting that the magnitude-cumulative num- ber relationship is not a simple power-law. Ablation modeling of the observed meteors as a population does not yield a unique solution for the grain size and distribution of Draconid meteoroids, but is consistent with a typical Draconid meteoroid of mtotal between 10-6 to 10-4 kg being composed of 10 - 100 grains. Dynamical simulations indicate that the outburst was caused by dust particles released during the 1966 per- ihelion passage of the parent comet, 21P/Giacobini-Zinner, although there are dis- crepancies between the modelled and observed timing of the encounter, presumably caused by approaches of the comet to Jupiter during 1966-1972. Based on the results of our dynamical simulation, we predict possible increased activity of the Draconid meteor shower in 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2025.

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