Most probable failure scenario in a model power grid with random power demand
arXiv:1309.7498
Abstract
We consider a simple system with a local synchronous generator and a load whose power consumption is a random process. The most probable scenario of system failure (synchronization loss) is considered, and it is argued that its knowledge is virtually enough to estimate the probability of failure per unit time. We discuss two numerical methods to obtain the "optimal" evolution leading to failure.
7 pages, 12 figures