Astrobiological Complexity with Probabilistic Cellular Automata
arXiv:1206.3467 · doi:10.1007/s11084-012-9293-2
Abstract
Search for extraterrestrial life and intelligence constitutes one of the major endeavors in science, but has yet been quantitatively modeled only rarely and in a cursory and superficial fashion. We argue that probabilistic cellular automata (PCA) represent the best quantitative framework for modeling astrobiological history of the Milky Way and its Galactic Habitable Zone. The relevant astrobiological parameters are to be modeled as the elements of the input probability matrix for the PCA kernel. With the underlying simplicity of the cellular automata constructs, this approach enables a quick analysis of large and ambiguous input parameters' space. We perform a simple clustering analysis of typical astrobiological histories and discuss the relevant boundary conditions of practical importance for planning and guiding actual empirical astrobiological and SETI projects. In addition to showing how the present framework is adaptable to more complex situations and updated observational databases from current and near-future space missions, we demonstrate how numerical results could offer a cautious rationale for continuation of practical SETI searches.
37 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables; added journal reference below
References in corpus (22)
- GAIA: Composition, Formation and Evolution of the Galaxy
- Evolution of Biological Complexity
- The Galactic Habitable Zone and the Age Distribution of Complex Life in the Milky Way
- The Galactic Habitable Zone I. Galactic Chemical Evolution
- An Estimate of the Age Distribution of Terrestrial Planets in the Universe: Quantifying Metallicity as a Selection Effect
- Does the rapid appearance of life on Earth suggest that life is common in the Universe?
- Ice Age Epochs and the Sun's Path Through the Galaxy
- DARWIN - A Mission to Detect, and Search for Life on, Extrasolar Planets
- The Temporal Aspect of the Drake Equation and SETI
- Galactic Gradients, Postbiological Evolution and the Apparent Failure of SETI
- An Intermittent Star Formation History in a 'Normal' Disk Galaxy: The Milky Way
- IRAS-based whole-sky upper limit on Dyson Spheres
- Mass Extinctions and The Sun's Encounters with Spiral Arms
- Self-Organized Criticality and Punctuated Equilibria
- Fermi's Paradox - The Last Challenge for Copernicanism?
- Five or six step scenario for evolution?
- Exploring the Galaxy using space probes
- Numerical Testing of The Rare Earth Hypothesis using Monte Carlo Realisation Techniques
- Galactic Punctuated Equilibrium: How to Undermine Carter's Anthropic Argument in Astrobiology
- Does life's rapid appearance imply a Martian origin?
- Broadcasting but not receiving: density dependence considerations for SETI signals
- Mass Extinctions vs. Uniformitarianism in Biological Evolution
Cited by in corpus (10)
- Population Growth, Energy Use, and the Implications for the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence
- "Grandeur in this view of life": N-body simulation models of the Galactic habitable zone
- The Fermi Paradox and the Aurora Effect: Exo-civilization Settlement, Expansion and Steady States
- Long-Term Prospects: Mitigation of Supernova and Gamma-Ray Burst Threat to Intelligent Beings
- Exploring the Cosmic Evolution of Habitability with Galaxy Merger Trees
- Advanced Aspects of the Galactic Habitability
- Galactic Habitability Re-Examined: Indications of Bimodality
- Fermi's Paradox Is a Daunting Problem---Under Whatever Label
- On possible life-dispersal patterns beyond the Earth
- Gaia as Solaris: An Alternative Default Evolutionary Trajectory