A Stochastic Process Approach of the Drake Equation Parameters

Abstract

The number N of detectable (i.e. communicating) extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy is usually done by using the Drake equation. This equation was established in 1961 by Frank Drake and was the first step to quantifying the SETI field. Practically, this equation is rather a simple algebraic expression and its simplistic nature leaves it open to frequent re-expression An additional problem of the Drake equation is the time-independence of its terms, which for example excludes the effects of the physico-chemical history of the galaxy. Recently, it has been demonstrated that the main shortcoming of the Drake equation is its lack of temporal structure, i.e., it fails to take into account various evolutionary processes. In particular, the Drake equation doesn't provides any error estimation about the measured quantity. Here, we propose a first treatment of these evolutionary aspects by constructing a simple stochastic process which will be able to provide both a temporal structure to the Drake equation (i.e. introduce time in the Drake formula in order to obtain something like N(t)) and a first standard error measure.

22 pages, 0 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in the International Journal of Astrobiology

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• A Statistical Estimation of the Occurrence of Extraterrestrial Intelligence in the Milky Way Galaxy
• A joint analysis of the Drake equation and the Fermi paradox
• Dissolving the Fermi Paradox
• The most common habitable planets - atmospheric characterization of the subgroup of fast rotators
• Contact Inequality -- First Contact Will Likely Be With An Older Civilization
• Signal coverage approach to the detection probability of hypothetical extraterrestrial emitters in the Milky Way
• Eta-Earth Revisited II: Deriving a Maximum Number of Earth-like Habitats in the Galactic Disk
• On the Possibility of Detecting Class A Stellar Engines Using Exoplanet Transit Curves
• Galactic exploration by directed Self-Replicating Probes, and its implications for the Fermi paradox
• The Drake Equation as a Function of Spectral Type and Time
• A Birth-Death-Migration Model for Life in Astrophysical Environments
• Artificial Broadcasts as Galactic Populations: I. A Point Process Formalism for Extraterrestrial Intelligences and Their Broadcasts
• Demography of galactic technosignatures
• Communicating extraterrestrial intelligence (CETI) interaction models based on the Drake Equation
• Artificial versus Biological Intelligence in the Cosmos: Clues from a Stochastic Analysis of the Drake Equation
• Can Sequentially Linked Gamma-Ray Bursts Nullify Randomness?