Bayesian phase I/II adaptively randomized oncology trials with combined drugs
arXiv:1108.1614 · doi:10.1214/10-AOAS433
Abstract
We propose a new integrated phase I/II trial design to identify the most efficacious dose combination that also satisfies certain safety requirements for drug-combination trials. We first take a Bayesian copula-type model for dose finding in phase I. After identifying a set of admissible doses, we immediately move the entire set forward to phase II. We propose a novel adaptive randomization scheme to favor assigning patients to more efficacious dose-combination arms. Our adaptive randomization scheme takes into account both the point estimate and variability of efficacy. By using a moving reference to compare the relative efficacy among treatment arms, our method achieves a high resolution to distinguish different arms. We also consider groupwise adaptive randomization when efficacy is late-onset. We conduct extensive simulation studies to examine the operating characteristics of the proposed design, and illustrate our method using a phase I/II melanoma clinical trial.
Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS433 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)
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