paper

A Regression-based Adjusted Plus-Minus Statistic for NHL Players

arXiv:1006.4310 · doi:10.2202/1559-0410.1284

Abstract

The goal of this paper is to develop an adjusted plus-minus statistic for NHL players that is independent of both teammates and opponents. We use data from the shift reports on NHL.com in a weighted least squares regression to estimate an NHL player's effect on his team's success in scoring and preventing goals at even strength. Both offensive and defensive components of adjusted plus-minus are given, estimates in terms of goals per 60 minutes and goals per season are given, and estimates for forwards, defensemen, and goalies are given.

39 pages, 4 figures, 25 tables. Version 3: Typos fixed. Table of contents, list of tables, and list of figures added. Two paragraphs in discussion of goalies at the end of Section 3.3 were added

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