A general "bang-bang" principle for predicting the maximum of a random walk

Abstract

Let $(B_t{)}_{0\le t\le T}$ be either a Bernoulli random walk or a Brownian motion with drift, and let $M_t:=\max \{B_s:0\le s\le t\}$, $0\le t\le T$. This paper solves the general optimal prediction problem \sup_{0\leqτ\leq T}\sE[f(M_T-B_τ)], where the supremum is over all stopping times $\tau$ adapted to the natural filtration of $(B_t)$, and $f$ is a nonincreasing convex function. The optimal stopping time ${\tau }^{\ast }$ is shown to be of "bang-bang" type: ${\tau }^{\ast }\equiv 0$ if the drift of the underlying process $(B_t)$ is negative, and ${\tau }^{\ast }\equiv T$ is the drift is positive. This result generalizes recent findings by S. Yam, S. Yung and W. Zhou [{\em J. Appl. Probab.} {\bf 46} (2009), 651--668] and J. Du Toit and G. Peskir [{\em Ann. Appl. Probab.} {\bf 19} (2009), 983--1014], and provides additional mathematical justification for the dictum in finance that one should sell bad stocks immediately, but keep good ones as long as possible.

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