Nonlinear Prediction of Solar Cycle 24

Abstract

Sunspot activity is highly variable and challenging to forecast. Yet forecasts are important, since peak activity has profound effects on major geophysical phenomena including space weather (satellite drag, telecommunications outages) and has even been correlated speculatively with changes in global weather patterns. This paper investigates trends in sunspot activity, using new techniques for decadal-scale prediction of the present solar cycle (cycle 24). First, Hurst exponent $H$ analysis is used to investigate the autocorrelation structure of the putative dynamics; then the Sugihara-May algorithm is used to predict the ascension time and the maximum intensity of the current sunspot cycle. Here we report $H$ = 0.86 for the complete sunspot number dataset (1700-2007) and $H$ = 0.88 for the reliable sunspot data set (1848-2007). Using the Sugihara-May algorithm analysis, we forecast that cycle 24 will reach its maximum in December 2012 at approximately 87 sunspots units.

Accepted by ApJ

References in corpus (4)

• Predicting solar cycle 24 with a solar dynamo model
• Can One Make Any Crash Prediction in Finance Using the Local Hurst Exponent Idea?
• Prediction of Sunspot Cycles by Data Assimilation Method
• North-south asymmetry in solar activity: predicting the amplitude of the next solar cycle

Cited by in corpus (8)

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• Temporal and Periodic Variation of the MCMESI for the Last Two Solar Cycles; Comparison with the Number of Different Class X-Ray Solar Flares
• New Suns in the Cosmos?
• One Possible Reason for Double-Peaked Maxima in Solar Cycles: Is a Second Maximum of Solar Cycle 24 Coming?