The Unpredictability of the Most Energetic Solar Events
arXiv:0707.1118 · doi:10.1086/519923
Abstract
Observations over the past two solar cycles show a highly irregular pattern of occurrence for major solar flares, gamma-ray events, and solar energetic particle (SEP) fluences. Such phenomena do not appear to follow the direct indices of solar magnetic activity, such as the sunspot number. I show that this results from the non-Poisson occurrence for the most energetic events. This Letter also points out a particularly striking example of this irregularity in a comparison between the declining phases of the recent two solar cycles (1993-1995 and 2004-2006, respectively) and traces it through the radiated energies of the flares, the associated SEP fluences, and the sunspot areas. These factors suggest that processes in the solar interior involved with the supply of magnetic flux up to the surface of the Sun have strong correlations in space and time, leading to a complex occurrence pattern that is presently unpredictable on timescales longer than active region lifetimes (weeks) and not correlated well with the solar cycle itself.
4 pages
References in corpus (1)
Cited by in corpus (5)
- Driving major solar flares and eruptions: a review
- The MUSCLES Treasury Survey IV: Scaling Relations for Ultraviolet, Ca II K, and Energetic Particle Fluxes from M Dwarfs
- Stellar energetic particles in the magnetically turbulent habitable zones of TRAPPIST-1-like planetary systems
- Ensemble Forecasting of Major Solar Flares: Methods for Combining Models
- Monte-Carlo Simulation of Solar Active-Region Energy