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- Centre National de la Recherche ScientifiqueFR536 papers
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4 papers · 2 filters
A Mechanism for Pockets of Predictability in Complex Adaptive Systems
Jorgen Vitting Andersen, Didier Sornette
We document a mechanism operating in complex adaptive systems leading to dynamical pockets of predictability (``prediction days''), in which agents collectively take predetermined…
Non-parametric Determination of Real-Time Lag Structure between Two Time Series: the "Optimal Thermal Causal Path" Method
D. Sornette, W. -X. Zhou
We introduce a novel non-parametric methodology to test for the dynamical time evolution of the lag-lead structure between two arbitrary time series. The method consists in constru…
Bubble, Critical Zone and the Crash of Royal Ahold
G. Broekstra, D. Sornette, W. -X. Zhou
Our analysis of financial data, in terms of super-exponential growth, suggests that the seed of the 2002/03 crisis of the Dutch supermarket giant AHOLD was planted in 1996. It beca…
Response Functions to Critical Shocks in Social Sciences: An Empirical and Numerical Study
M. Roehner, D. Sornette, J. V. Andersen
We show that, provided one focuses on properly selected episodes, one can apply to the social sciences the same observational strategy that has proved successful in natural science…