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4 papers · 1 filter
Stability and Fluctuations in Complex Ecological Systems
Eric Forgoston, Sarah Day, Peter C. de Ruiter +24
From 08-12 August, 2022, 32 individuals participated in a workshop, Stability and Fluctuations in Complex Ecological Systems, at the Lorentz Center, located in Leiden, The Netherla…
Analysis and control of pre-extinction dynamics in stochastic populations
Garrett Nieddu, Lora Billings, Eric Forgoston
We consider a stochastic population model where the intrinsic or demographic noise causes cycling between states before the population eventually goes extinct. A master equation ap…
Predicting unobserved exposures from seasonal epidemic data
Eric Forgoston, Ira B. Schwartz
We consider a stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model with a contact rate that fluctuates seasonally. Through the use of a nonlinear, stochas…
Converging towards the optimal path to extinction
Ira B. Schwartz, Eric Forgoston, Simone Bianco +1
Extinction appears ubiquitously in many fields, including chemical reactions, population biology, evolution, and epidemiology. Even though extinction as a random process is a rare…