120 citations
- Aalto UniversityFI1 paper
- Academy of Mathematics and Systems ScienceCN1 paper
- AGH University of KrakowPL1 paper
- Agriculture and FoodAU1 paper
- Atilim UniversityTR1 paper
- Bilkent UniversityTR1 paper
- Cardiff UniversityGB1 paper
- Carnegie Mellon UniversityUS1 paper
- Centre Inria de l'Université de LilleFR1 paper
- Chinese Academy of SciencesCN1 paper
- City University of MacauMO1 paper
- Clemson UniversityUS1 paper
7 papers
Forecasting the Evolving Composition of Inbound Tourism Demand: A Bayesian Compositional Time Series Approach Using Platform Booking Data
Harrison Katz
Understanding how the composition of guest origin markets evolves over time is critical for destination marketing organizations, hospitality businesses, and tourism planners. We de…
Centered-Innovation MA for Bayesian Dirichlet ARMA: Theoretical Equivalence and an Application to Bank-Asset Shares
Harrison Katz
We study a minimal change to an observation-driven Bayesian Dirichlet ARMA (B--DARMA) for compositional time series: replace the raw additive log-ratio (ALR) residual in the moving…
Slomads Rising: Stay Length Shifts in Digital Nomad Travel, United States 2019-2024
Harrison Katz, Erica Savage
Using all U.S. Airbnb reservations created in 2019-2024 (booking-count weighted), we quantify pandemic-era shifts in nights per booking (NPB) and the mechanism behind them. The mea…
Forecasting the U.S. Renewable-Energy Mix with an ALR-BDARMA Compositional Time-Series Framework
Harrison Katz, Thomas Maierhofer
Accurate forecasts of the US renewable-generation mix are critical for planning transmission upgrades, sizing storage, and setting balancing-market rules. We present a Bayesian Dir…
On a fast consistent selection of nested models with possibly unnormalized probability densities
Rong Bian, Kung-Sik Chan, Bing Cheng +1
Models with unnormalized probability density functions are ubiquitous in statistics, artificial intelligence and many other fields. However, they face significant challenges in mod…
Lead Times in Flux: Analyzing Airbnb Booking Dynamics During Global Upheavals (2018-2022)
Harrison Katz, Erica Savage, Peter Coles
Short-term shifts in booking behaviors can disrupt forecasting in the travel and hospitality industry, especially during global crises. Traditional metrics like average or median l…