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34 papers · 1 filter
Observed circulation trends in boreal summer linked to two spatially distinct teleconnection patterns
Tamara Happé, Chiem van Straaten, Raed Hamed +2
Various regions in the Northern Hemispheric midlatitudes have seen pronounced trends in upper-atmosphere summer circulation and surface temperature extremes over recent decades (si…
Forecast error growth: A dynamic-stochastic model
Eviatar Bach, Dan Crisan, Michael Ghil
There is a history of simple forecast error growth models designed to capture the key properties of error growth in operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. We propos…
Gaussian Framework and Optimal Projection of Weather Fields for Prediction of Extreme Events
Valeria Mascolo, Alessandro Lovo, Corentin Herbert +1
Extreme events are the major weather-related hazard for humanity. It is then of crucial importance to have a good understanding of their statistics and to be able to forecast them.…
Using rare event algorithms to understand the statistics and dynamics of extreme heatwave seasons in South Asia
Clément Le Priol, Joy M. Monteiro, Freddy Bouchet
Computing the return times of extreme events and assessing the impact of climate change on such return times is fundamental to extreme event attribution studies. However, the rarit…
A statistical physics and dynamical systems perspective on geophysical extreme events
Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Tommaso Alberti +14
Statistical physics and dynamical systems theory are key tools to study high-impact geophysical events such as temperature extremes, cyclones, thunderstorms, geomagnetic storms and…
A Punctuated Equilibrium Analysis of the Climate Evolution of Cenozoic exhibits a Hierarchy of Abrupt Transitions
Denis-Didier Rousseau, Witold Bagniewski, Valerio Lucarini
The Earth's climate has experienced numerous critical transitions during its history, which have often been accompanied by massive and rapid changes in the biosphere. Such transiti…