159 citations
5 papers
Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu
Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, Emil Verner
We study the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on mortality and economic activity across U.S. cities during the 1918 Flu Pandemic. The combination of fast and strin…
Digitizing Historical Balance Sheet Data: A Practitioner's Guide
Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck
This paper discusses how to successfully digitize large-scale historical micro-data by augmenting optical character recognition (OCR) engines with pre- and post-processing methods.…
Dynamic Beveridge Curve Accounting
Hie Joo Ahn, Leland D. Crane
We develop a dynamic decomposition of the empirical Beveridge curve, i.e., the level of vacancies conditional on unemployment. Using a standard model, we show that three factors ca…
Density Forecasts in Panel Data Models: A Semiparametric Bayesian Perspective
Laura Liu
This paper constructs individual-specific density forecasts for a panel of firms or households using a dynamic linear model with common and heterogeneous coefficients as well as cr…
Spectral backtests of forecast distributions with application to risk management
Michael B. Gordy, Alexander J. McNeil
We study a class of backtests for forecast distributions in which the test statistic depends on a spectral transformation that weights exceedance events by a function of the modele…