21 citations
15 papers
Interval Influence Diagrams
Kenneth W. Fertig, John S. Breese
We describe a mechanism for performing probabilistic reasoning in influence diagrams using interval rather than point valued probabilities. We derive the procedures for node remova…
Computationally-Optimal Real-Resource Strategies
David Einav, Michael R. Fehling
This paper focuses on managing the cost of deliberation before action. In many problems, the overall quality of the solution reflects costs incurred and resources consumed in delib…
Decision Making Using Probabilistic Inference Methods
Ross D. Shachter, Mark Alan Peot
The analysis of decision making under uncertainty is closely related to the analysis of probabilistic inference. Indeed, much of the research into efficient methods for probabilist…
Integrating Model Construction and Evaluation
Robert P. Goldman, John S. Breese
To date, most probabilistic reasoning systems have relied on a fixed belief network constructed at design time. The network is used by an application program as a representation of…
Reformulating Inference Problems Through Selective Conditioning
Paul Dagum, Eric J. Horvitz
We describe how we selectively reformulate portions of a belief network that pose difficulties for solution with a stochastic-simulation algorithm. With employ the selective condit…
Dynamic Network Models for Forecasting
Paul Dagum, Adam Galper, Eric J. Horvitz
We have developed a probabilistic forecasting methodology through a synthesis of belief network models and classical time-series analysis. We present the dynamic network model (DNM…